The Second Best WDIS Advice You Can Get
Last updated: July 27th, 2020
The Second Best "Who Do I Start Advice" You Can Get
It's easier to understand why Fantasy Math is the best start-sit advice you can get by considering the
advice you can get:
Expert Consensus Rankings
I have an economics background, and I've always been a big believer in efficient markets and the wisdom of crowds. I draft by
selecting the biggest bargain according to ADP
, and my investments are in index funds.
Expert Consensus Rankings — where hundreds of experts submit their fantasy rankings each week — are clearly the fantasy football equivalent of that. And so if the goal is maximizing point totals, efficient markets would suggest — just as index funds beat stock picking — that's the best most of us (even experts) can expect to do.
At the risk of giving away some secret formula
, Fantasy Math is basically ECR with correlations and player variance added on top (one cool thing: the more experts disagree about a particular player, the wider his distribution).
Because the goal in fantasy is beat your opponent rather than maximizing your total points, this gives Fantasy Math a slight edge over ECR, which is probably way ahead of anything else itself.